Economic Impacts of ICE raids in NC

What jobs do the immigrants that have been detained by ICE in NC have?

The immigrants detained by ICE in North Carolina are largely concentrated in essential, blue-collar industries that are vital to the state's economy.

The most frequently cited jobs and sectors for this population in North Carolina are:

·         🏗️ Construction: This is a major area of employment. Recent ICE and Border Patrol enforcement activity in the Raleigh and Charlotte areas led to widespread worker absences on construction sites, including high-rise and commercial projects, highlighting the industry's heavy reliance on immigrant labor.   

·         Foreign-born workers make up approximately 29% of all construction workers in North Carolina.   

·         🍽️ Accommodation and Food Services: News reports following enforcement operations have mentioned arrests impacting workers in businesses ranging from pasta shops to upscale establishments.

·         🛠️ Manufacturing: This is one of the top industries for immigrant workers in the state.

·         🧑‍🌾 Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing: Immigrants are a critical component of the workforce in this sector, making up over a quarter of all workers in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting.   

In general, immigrant workers in North Carolina, including those without full legal status, are disproportionately concentrated in service and production jobs such as building cleaning, cooking, and maintenance.

The economic impact of undocumented migrants and ICE detentions in North Carolina is significant and operates on two main levels: their contributions to the economy, and the costs and disruptions caused by enforcement actions.  

💰 Economic Contributions of Undocumented Immigrants

Undocumented immigrants are a substantial part of North Carolina's economy as workers, consumers, and taxpayers.  

·         Tax Revenue: Undocumented immigrants in North Carolina contributed an estimated $692.2 million in state and local taxes in 2022, primarily through sales/excise taxes, property taxes, and income taxes [2.1]. This figure would increase to over $843 million if they were granted work authorization [2.1].  

·         Labor Force: Undocumented immigrants comprised an estimated 5% of North Carolina's workforce in 2016 [2.4]. Overall, immigrants (documented and undocumented) have a higher labor force participation rate than native-born individuals and are concentrated in their prime working ages, helping to alleviate labor shortages in the state [1.7, 2.7].  

·         Key Industries: They fill crucial roles in industries that are vital to the state's economy, including:

o    Construction: About 1 in every 4 construction workers are immigrants [1.4, 3.4].  

o    Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing: Immigrants make up a large share of the workforce, essential for food production [2.4, 3.4].

o    Accommodation and Food Services (hospitality) [2.4, 3.4].  

o    Manufacturing [2.4].

·         Spending Power: Immigrant-led households in the state contribute billions to the economy through their consumer spending [2.4].  

📉 Economic Disruption from ICE Detentions

Aggressive enforcement actions by ICE and Border Patrol can create immediate and long-term economic damage through labor disruption and reduced business activity.  

·         Worker Absenteeism and Business Shutdowns: Recent enforcement operations in the Charlotte and Raleigh areas caused a "chilling effect" leading to widespread worker no-shows on major commercial construction sites (including high-rise projects) and a drop in attendance at small shops and restaurants [1.3, 3.3]. Some small businesses and laundromats in immigrant communities have temporarily closed due to fear of raids [3.2].  

·         Projected Tax Loss from Deportation: Estimates suggest that if just ten percent of undocumented individuals in North Carolina were deported or detained, the state and local tax revenue loss would be about $69 million per year [1.4, 2.6].  

·         Increased Cost of Living: A loss of a large number of immigrant workers from the labor force would likely lead to a labor supply shortage, which would increase the cost of goods and services (like construction, child care, and restaurants) for all North Carolinians [1.4, 3.4].  

·         Job Losses for U.S.-Born Workers: Contrary to popular belief, mass deportation is projected to reduce job opportunities for U.S.-born workers by reducing consumer demand and removing workers who complement U.S.-born labor (e.g., fewer construction laborers means less work for U.S.-born managers and electricians) [1.4, 3.5].  

The recent immigration enforcement actions by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and ICE have caused immediate and significant disruption across several major industries in the Raleigh and broader Triangle area.  

The sectors most immediately impacted by worker absenteeism and business shutdowns include:

·         🏗️ Construction: This was the most prominently affected industry. As many as 200 construction workers failed to report to multiple large commercial job sites in Raleigh, including high-rise construction at North Hills and work on the new Raleigh City Hall [1.2, 2.1]. Companies reported that projects, like drywall installation, were entirely halted, as the immigrant community makes up a large portion (29% in NC) of the construction workforce [3.3, 1.2].  

·         🍽️ Accommodation and Food Services: Restaurants, especially those serving the Latino community, either closed or saw a sharp reduction in business due to fear of confrontations between customers and federal agents [1.1, 2.3]. For instance, a family closed their restaurant, Esmeralda Grill, and scaled back their grocery store to delivery only [2.3]. The hospitality industry "relies heavily on a stable, reliable workforce" and faced uncertainty [3.3].  

·         🛒 Retail and Services: Small shops, international grocery stores, and laundromats in immigrant-heavy neighborhoods saw customers and workers stay home, leading to temporary closures and a "chilling effect" on business activity [1.1, 2.3].  

·         👶 Childcare: Childcare centers reported that they asked parents to keep their children home because not enough staff felt safe coming in to work to care for the children [3.3].  

In summary, the raids severely impacted essential, labor-intensive sectors by removing a significant portion of the workforce, leading to project delays and business disruption across the region [1.2, 2.2].